Lowest Downside Probability

Smallest modelled probability of a negative return. Ratings as of 2026-08-25 (today) for most names; a few held names carry earlier dates. The report page for each name is the canonical view and always the most recent.

What the forecast record says, next to the forecasts. Across 480 pre-registered anchors, the direction implied by our targets has been right 41.5% of the time — below the 50% a coin flip would give, against a proxy Brier score of 0.268 versus 0.25 for that same coin flip (lower is better). That Brier figure is reconstructed from the price target, not a probability we published — the engine only began storing its published probabilities on 2026-08-04, and until those mature this page cannot report a real one. Read the point figures on this page with that in mind, and see the full accuracy record. Samples are thin and windows short; nothing here is settled in either direction.

This table is not an independent reading. Measured across the 854 covered names, its ordering correlates +0.87 with Largest Margin of Safety; +0.87 with Highest Expected Return; +0.81 with Best Risk / Reward. A name near the top of several of these is one signal counted several times.