Daily Regime Check
25 Aug 2026
Verdict: HALT
No new LEAPS today; equity only; hedge sleeve 1.5×.
⚠ HALT REGIME — review checklist Part A3 before any action.
Signals
| Signal | Reading | Status |
|---|---|---|
| SPX vs 200-day MA | +8.22% vs 200-day; 200-day rising | GREEN |
| VIX | 15.85 | GREEN |
| Fed funds trajectory | 3.50–3.75% · FOMC 2026-07-29 has passed, stance not re-authored | YELLOW |
| NDX breadth (% above 50-day MA) | 52.0% | YELLOW |
Verdict: HALT
2 yellow signals (Fed funds trajectory, NDX breadth (% above 50-day MA)) trigger HALT. No new LEAPS today; equity only; hedge sleeve 1.5×.
The rule is fixed and applied without discretion: all four green is normal sizing; exactly one yellow and no red is caution; two or more yellow, or any red, halts new LEAPS. Today: 2 green, 2 yellow, 0 red.
Action for today
- New LEAPS allowed? NO
- New speculative names allowed? No
- Hedge sleeve multiplier: 1.5×
- Manual drawdown review needed? Yes — run checklist Section A3 if NLV within 5% of any drawdown tier
Watch items
- Overnight US index futures and any gap risk into the cash open.
- Scheduled Fed speakers and macro prints in today's US session.
- ZAR and SARB developments, and any commodity shock affecting the local book.
Sources & caveats
- SPX vs 200-day MA — Alpha Vantage (SPY as S&P 500 proxy — AV carries no ^GSPC) · as of 2026-08-24 · SPY 763.47 · 200d MA 705.46 · MA slope +1.44%/month
- VIX — yfinance (^VIX) — documented exception to AV-only; AV carries no ^VIX · VIXY rejected as a proxy: futures ETF, roll decay, misclassifies the level
- Fed funds trajectory — authored 2026-07-29 — Federal Reserve FOMC statement, 16-17 June 2026 (federalreserve.gov/ne · as of 2026-07-29 · re-author from the latest statement
- NDX breadth (% above 50-day MA) — computed from Alpha Vantage closes · list authored 2026-07-29 · 53 of 102 constituents above their 50-day
- Generated 2026-08-25 04:20:09 SAST. Readings reflect the PREVIOUS US session; this check runs at 07:30 SAST, before the US open.
- MCH Pre-Trade & Portfolio Review Checklist, Part A1 (MCH Regime Rule).
This report is produced under the MCH Regime Rule (Checklist Part A1). It is not trade advice.